Theoretical versus actual losses

Hi all,

I recently requested some information from a casino in the UK where i play occasionally, as i seemed to be having a Biblivally bad run there.

Eventually they have sent the requested information and it makes for some interesting reading. I play only 3 card poker there, betting the ante and playing Q-8 or better, and i also play the bonus bets of Pair Plus and Prime, both for typically around half the size of the ante bet.

Over the period, i have lost the full amount of my buy in on each of my 10 visits. My turnover is approximately only 2x my buyin over the duration (a total of 16 hours of total play) and my actualised losses exceed by a factor of 15x my theoretical losses.

Can people smarter than me help me understand if this is feasible over this type of timescale with an unbiased deck (the deck is machine shuffled and dealt). Am i somewhere in the normal range of 'unlucky' at this venue or is something else at play?

Thank you.

Quote: LimeyMatty

Hi all,

I recently requested some information from a casino in the UK where i play occasionally, as i seemed to be having a Biblivally bad run there.

Eventually they have sent the requested information and it makes for some interesting reading. I play only 3 card poker there, betting the ante and playing Q-8 or better, and i also play the bonus bets of Pair Plus and Prime, both for typically around half the size of the ante bet.

Over the period, i have lost the full amount of my buy in on each of my 10 visits. My turnover is approximately only 2x my buyin over the duration (a total of 16 hours of total play) and my actualised losses exceed by a factor of 15x my theoretical losses.

Can people smarter than me help me understand if this is feasible over this type of timescale with an unbiased deck (the deck is machine shuffled and dealt). Am i somewhere in the normal range of 'unlucky' at this venue or is something else at play?

Thank you.
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Please tell us the ratio between your typical buy-in and your unit bet size?

3 Card Poker sucks, avoid that game.

Some notes:
It's not the worst table game out there, but it is mindless: simply raise on a Q-6-4 or better.
Look for the best table on the pairs plus (1-4-6-30-40), bonus (1-4-5), HA 2.32%.
Stay away from 1-3-6 games as they will have a HA at about 7% and will really kill your bankroll.

Because you only get a pair or higher 25.6% of the time, expect to go down alot in this game.
You will only get a flush or better on about 8.5% of hands.

The HA on the regular game is 3.37% with an element of risk of 2.01%.

So on a $10 table with pairs plus and the ante, at 30 hands per hour,
expect to lose: .0232 x 300 + .0337 x 300 = $17.07/hr.

If I need some mindless fun I will play this game but only for a limited time.

I have one chart where I'd bet $20 on the Ante/Play and $10 on the Pairs Plus and have a 60X bet session (first 2 bets, $30) starting with $1,800. I'd be looking for trips payout of $400 and a Straight Flush payout of $520 on a $50 total bet.

Quote: LimeyMatty

Hi all,

I recently requested some information from a casino in the UK where i play occasionally, as i seemed to be having a Biblivally bad run there.

Eventually they have sent the requested information and it makes for some interesting reading. I play only 3 card poker there, betting the ante and playing Q-8 or better, and i also play the bonus bets of Pair Plus and Prime, both for typically around half the size of the ante bet.

Over the period, i have lost the full amount of my buy in on each of my 10 visits. My turnover is approximately only 2x my buyin over the duration (a total of 16 hours of total play) and my actualised losses exceed by a factor of 15x my theoretical losses.

Can people smarter than me help me understand if this is feasible over this type of timescale with an unbiased deck (the deck is machine shuffled and dealt). Am i somewhere in the normal range of 'unlucky' at this venue or is something else at play?

Thank you.
link to original post

My first guess would be you are betting too much of you bankroll per hand. Try to keep bets around 1% of bankroll. In other words if your buy in is $500, limit your bets to $5 or less.

I haven't seen the e-game version with minimum bets of $1 yet.
But I have seen people abandon the Ante/Play bets and just play the Pairs Plus and the 6 card Bonus bets only.

I'm halfway watching through this and it may be the new strategy she titles this video on. I've seen Victor from the Slot Lady channel emphasize this strategy. Spoiler: she won on a flush for the 6 card bonus that pays 20:1. If you want a Royal payout over $10K, bet $10 or more on the 6 card bonus.



I'm not sure what the Prime bet the OP speaks of.

The Prime bet is used in the UK in Three Card Poker, it's based on the colors of the cards.

See Wizard's Three Card Prime article for more info

Unit bet size is approximately 1/40 of buy-in

'My first guess would be you are betting too much of you bankroll per hand. Try to keep bets around 1% of bankroll. In other words if your buy in is $500, limit your bets to $5 or less.'

Unit bet is approximately 2 to 2.5% of bankroll.

Quote: LimeyMatty

Unit bet size is approximately 1/40 of buy-in
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Seems like a reasonable ratio to me.

Quote: LimeyMatty

Unit bet size is approximately 1/40 of buy-in
link to original post

It sounds like on a ¢400 buy-in, you're putting ¢10 on Ante, another ¢5 on Pair Plus, and another ¢5 on Prime. When you Play, that's another ¢10 on the spot.

(Feel free to substitute "¢" with whatever currency symbol amuses you.)

To my mind, you're playing either 1/20th or 1/13th of your buy-in per round. I think it's amazing that you got 16 hours of play from that; I would expect the chips to evaporate considerably sooner.

https://wizardofodds.com/play/three-card-poker/

Not caring about money too much but trying to keep it real; 60X $150 = $9,000; so my bets with a $10K start would be $100 on the ante/play & $50 on the Pairs Plus. What I find is that losing 20 hands in a row happens often and it must be broken up with a big win here and there and if it's not, the bankroll will keep going down. Getting a few flush wins in a row is a sweet spot. Getting trips is a minimum big win. Trying to run a progression on every (Play & Ante) win is difficult because they rarely follow one another past 3 wins in a row.

If this were a $1,000 buy-in, I'd be betting $10 on the Ante/Play and $5 on the Pairs Plus. I'd be playing it to kill time until I get to another game I like better, or if I got backed off from Black Jack but they said I could play something else while I was there.

Quote: LimeyMatty

i also play the bonus bets of Pair Plus and Prime, both for typically around half the size of the ante bet.
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If you do this, you are asking for action and getting it. No one told you they are sucker bets? Even if you don't get treated too bad by them, your 'total action' is getting high and you are asking for it just based on how much you are plunking down each round

Consider not betting the Pairs Plus.

'In Three Card Poker which is the better bet, the Pairplus or the Ante & Play?'